| No seasonal boom in 2010? |
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Consolidators International (CII) is not expecting a pre-Christmas rush of air cargo this year according to CEO Julian Keeling. "With US unemployment hovering around the 10 percent mark, housing sharply lower, an anemic stock market and manufacturers just marking time, air cargo will show little growth for the remainder of the year. "Retailers are taking their cue from shoppers' reluctance to open their pocketbooks and have become very miserly in continuing to build up inventory. The supply chain seems to have snapped at the retailer's warehouse," he added. Noting that airlines are preferring to keep their fuel surcharges in place rather than raise rates in anticipation of an upturn, Keeling acknowledged that with a slow steaming policy by ocean carriers likely to continue, there will be some last minute ordering that is likely to benefit air freight. Keeling also noted a continuing decline in the number of major forwarders as the integrators continue to gain market share. "There now are only seven independent, multinational forwarders of any significance: DHL, Schenker, Panalpina, Kuehne & Nagel, Expeditors, UTI and Ceva. "The integrators, particularly FedEx and UPS, have built up their infrastructures in Asia at enormous cost, but this seems to be paying off. They are providing excellent service and shippers seem to be willing to pay their higher rates in return for this service." The CII executive said that FedEx and UPS continue to reduce the amount of capacity they offer the market. "Twenty years ago FedEx sold $700 million worth of space to independent forwarders. Today, that figure has shrunk to $50 million," he observed. Despite the market outlook, Keeling said CII volume has jumped 40 percent this year. "We are sticking to our knitting as we have for the past sixteen years, concentrating on the South Pacific, particularly Australia and New Zealand, which are strong markets for both air and ocean trade." Source: Air Cargo World, September 06, 2010 |
